Weekly Market Outlook: Nifty, Sensex, Commodities, and Sector Focus

The Indian stock market continues to show strong momentum, supported by positive global cues and improving domestic sentiment. This week, investors are closely watching Nifty, Sensex, and key commodity trends, along with fresh opportunities in the metals and defense sectors.

Commodities Update

Gold: Currently trading in the overbought zone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 80. Historically, whenever gold enters this range, the price tends to consolidate for two to three months before resuming its next move. Investors should remain cautious at these levels.

Silver: RSI remains below 80, but past data shows that when silver crosses this threshold, it often faces a sharp correction. Traders should keep this in mind before taking fresh positions.

Crude Oil: Oil prices are hovering near 2018–2019 levels, making it undervalued compared to historical averages. Any geopolitical or demand-driven trigger could push crude oil higher in the coming months.

VIX (Volatility Index): The index has fallen to historic lows. This is a positive signal for long-term investors as it reflects market stability. However, option writers should remain alert, as low volatility can sometimes reverse quickly.

Index Overview

Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty: Both indices continue to remain in a strong uptrend. Nifty has a key breakout level near 25,600. If this level is crossed, the market could move towards fresh lifetime highs.

Sensex: The index is showing an inverted head and shoulders pattern on the charts. The first resistance is placed near 84,000. A breakout above this could fuel the next leg of the rally.

Overall Sentiment: Global tariff relaxations, expectations of US interest rate cuts, and higher GST-driven demand (likely from October onwards) are adding strength to the market outlook.

Sector in Focus – Metals

Metals have once again come into the spotlight, as both institutional and retail investors are watching accumulation in select names.

Hindustan Zinc:

PE ratio has dropped from ~40 to ~18–19, making valuations more attractive.

Dividend yield stands at nearly 6%.

Promoters hold around 62%, while public shareholding is very low (~4%).

Both FIIs and DIIs have been gradually increasing their stakes.

Hindustan Copper:

PE ratio has corrected from ~120 to ~50.

The company is debt-free and reports a strong ROE of ~19%.

Promoter holding is around 66%.

FIIs have raised their stake from 1.3% to 3.7% in recent quarters.

⚠️ Important: Metals are cyclical in nature and do not follow secular growth patterns. Investors should treat this as a long-term accumulation phase, not a short-term rally.

Alternative Sectors to Watch

Ferrous Metals: Tata Steel and SAIL remain strong players in the ferrous metal segment.

Defense: PSUs such as Mazagon Dock continue to benefit from government push and rising demand in the defense sector.

Conclusion

The market outlook remains positive with Nifty and Bank Nifty maintaining their strong uptrend.

Commodities like gold and silver are in a caution zone due to overbought signals.

Sensex is approaching a key resistance, while overall sentiment is supported by global and domestic triggers.

Metals and defense sectors appear attractive for investors focusing on long-term opportunities.

Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.